2024 Election Battles, AI Revolution Escalation, and India’s Cricket World Cup Ambitions: An In-Depth Two-Part Series Exploring the Pivotal Events and Trends of the Year.
The tumultuous events of 2023, ranging from burgeoning conflicts in West Asia to near-catastrophic financial upheavals from the collapses of revered institutions like Silicon Valley Bank and Credit Suisse, set the stage. Amidst this turmoil, the tech industry witnessed a historic blossoming as generative AI technologies, such as the groundbreaking ChatGPT, catapulted to the forefront.
Looking ahead to 2024, our annual two-part forecast begins today, pinpointing 10 pivotal events that are likely to shape the upcoming year across various sectors — including politics, technology, sports, and healthcare. Stay tuned for part two coming this Wednesday.
1. Election Extravaganza
An unprecedented wave of elections is set to wash over as many as 74 nations in 2024, potentially setting a new benchmark, according to The Economist. This tally includes all 27 European Union member states heading to the polls for the European Parliament, excluding Brazil and Türkiye, where votes are cast for local offices.
Key global players, constituting seven of the most densely inhabited countries and representing over a third of the planet’s population and its combined GDP, will participate. India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi is eying a third stint in office, facing a disorganized yet determined opposition that’s striving to counter the Bharatiya Janata Party’s robust grip.
The United States presidential election in November stands to capture international attention, as Joe Biden, a leader tested by two significant conflicts during his term, potentially faces a rematch with Donald Trump, who boasts a reputation as a diplomatic maven.
In India, the political arena will also be bustling with seven state elections, including Andhra Pradesh, Arunachal Pradesh, Odisha, Sikkim, Jammu and Kashmir, Haryana, Maharashtra, and Jharkhand. Presently, four of these regions are under the administration of the BJP or its coalition partners.
2. India’s GDP Defies Slowdown Concerns with Strong Growth
The Indian economy has displayed significant resilience, outpacing projections with a robust 7.7% growth rate in the initial half of the fiscal year 2023-24, despite global economic challenges and strict monetary policies. Contrary to ongoing expert predictions of sub-7% growth in the ensuing year, this performance has held up even with easing geopolitical tensions.
The upcoming national elections stand as a pivotal event and are expected to see the unveiling of populist policies intended to benefit the populace, potentially spurring short-term economic growth alongside substantial capital outlays planned for this fiscal year.
Historically, India’s economy has exhibited enhanced growth during election years, with the financial year 2019-20 as a notable exception. However, sustaining growth rates above the 6-7% threshold is essential for India to reach its ambitious developmental objectives by the centennial year of its independence in 2047.
3. A New Chapter in Obesity Treatment Emerges
Obesity, affecting over a billion individuals globally, has long battled with ineffective pharmaceutical interventions, often discontinued due to adverse effects, leaving bariatric surgery as the sole option.
However, breakthrough medications like glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) mimetics, notably the semaglutide-based Ozempic and WeGovy by Novo Nordisk, and Mounjaro by Eli Lilly, have revolutionized the treatment landscape, offering hope through simple injectable solutions. This innovation led to the recognition of Novo Nordisk’s leader by the Financial Times as Person of the Year.
As we progress into the new year, this segment is poised to advance further. While the availability of Ozempic and WeGovy in India is yet to be confirmed, the rising local demand, fueled by well-connected Indians, has put domestic pharmaceutical titans like Dr. Reddy’s, Lupin, Zydus, and Sun Pharma on a fast-track to develop their own anti-obesity drugs.
4. AI Technology Rivalry Intensifies in 2024
The “AI Spring” has been heating up, and OpenAI’s ChatGPT is now a recognized force, with anticipation building for its advancements in 2024.
Competing AI advancements, particularly Google’s Bard, have entered the ring, shaking OpenAI’s leading position. While both have unique strengths, ChatGPT has capitalized on being the pioneer in the field.
Bard boasts extensive language support, working in 40 languages worldwide, as opposed to ChatGPT’s nine. It also accesses the latest information more effectively. However, ChatGPT shines in crafting personal, creative content such as emails, poetry, and business documentation.
Google could be ramping up to dominate the field next year, with plans to heavily fund AI-focused ventures like Character.AI, as revealed by Reuters last November.
5. 2024 Poised for Double Cricket Triumph
Following a tough loss in this year’s men’s cricket world cup final, India stands a chance to secure dual victories in both men’s and women’s cricket in 2024.
Scheduled are the men’s T20 World Cup from June 4 to 30 in the US and West Indies, and the women’s counterpart in September and October in Bangladesh.
Both Indian teams are eager to end their title droughts, with the men looking for their first T20 World Cup win since their 2007 triumph, and the women aiming for their inaugural victory.
The women’s team has demonstrated impressive consistency, reaching the semifinals in five of eight tournaments. The men, currently the top-ranked T20 team, alongside the women ranked third, boast formidable line-ups, marking them as serious title contenders.
